The European Central Bank (ECB) Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) results for February highlight trends in inflation, income, spending, economic growth, labor market, housing, and credit access among Eurozone consumers. Here’s a summary of the key findings:
Inflation Perceptions and Expectations:
- Perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased to 3.1% in February (from 3.4% in January), the lowest since September 2021.
- Inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained at 2.6%, while three-year inflation expectations stayed at 2.4%.
- Inflation perceptions for lower income quintiles were slightly higher than those for higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (18-34) reported lower inflation perceptions compared to older age groups.
- Uncertainty about inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined to the lowest level since January 2022.
Income and Consumption:
- Income growth expectations increased slightly to 1.0% in February, up from 0.9% in January.
- Perceived spending growth over the past 12 months fell to 4.9% from 5.1% in January and 5.2% in December.
- Expected spending growth over the next 12 months also decreased to 3.5%, the same as in December, from 3.6% in January.
Economic Growth and Labor Market:
- Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were more negative, at -1.2% compared to -1.1% in January but better than the December figure of -1.3%.
- Unemployment expectations for the next 12 months rose to 10.5%, up from 10.4% in January and matching December’s level.
- The labor market outlook remained stable, with the current perceived unemployment rate at 10%, and consumers expecting only a slight rise in the future unemployment rate.
Housing and Credit Access:
- House price growth expectations for the next 12 months remained at 3.0%. Lower income households expected higher home price growth (3.5%) than higher income households (2.7%).
- Mortgage interest rate expectations for the next 12 months declined slightly to 4.4% (from 4.5% in January). Lower income households expected higher mortgage rates (5.0%) compared to higher income households (3.9%).
- The net percentage of households reporting a tightening in access to credit over the past 12 months declined, as did the percentage expecting tightening over the next 12 months.
Upcoming CES Release:
The ECB will release the results of the March CES survey on April 29, 2025.
Notes:
The statistics are based on a 2% winsorised mean, and the CES involves about 19,000 adult consumers from 11 euro area countries. The survey helps provide insights for ECB policy analysis.
This detailed outlook reflects consumer sentiment across a variety of economic dimensions, providing a comprehensive view of expectations for inflation, income, spending, and the broader economy in the Eurozone.
